Experts argue that, as serious as the current energy shock from the Iran conflict is, it is still less destructive for Europe than the crisis unleashed by Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022. Their view is not about downplaying today’s risks, but about recognizing how much has changed in Europe’s energy system over the past four years.
Óscar Barrero, from PwC, points to three main sources of uncertainty: the Strait of Hormuz acting as a chokepoint for a large share of global oil and gas flows, the risk of damage to production and refining infrastructure, and the big unknown of how long the conflict will last. All three create volatility, push up prices and revive memories of past crises, but he insists that the EU is better prepared now than it was in 2022. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Europe has diversified suppliers, expanded LNG infrastructure and reduced its direct dependence on Russian gas, which makes the system more resilient even in a highly stressed scenario.
Other specialists share this cautiously optimistic assessment. Market analyst Pedro Cantuel notes that Europe’s gas market structure in 2026 is “very different” from four years ago: Germany, for example, has regasification capacity it did not have before, and the EU no longer relies on Russian gas for around 40% of its supply. That does not mean consumers are safe from pain: because the power market is marginal and gas often sets the price, spikes in the Dutch TTF benchmark still translate into higher electricity bills for households and industry. But the risk of repeating the extreme price peaks of 300 euros/MWh seen in 2022 is now considered lower, barring a truly severe disruption.
At the same time, the current crisis is reshaping the playing field for renewables. Consultant Luis Villar points out that the surge in gas and oil prices could become a “breath of oxygen” for Spain’s struggling photovoltaic sector, which had suffered from very low and even negative prices in recent years. Higher prices in the morning and evening “shoulders” of the solar production curve improve the revenues of PV plants, while the perception of self-consumption as a safe, cost-cutting investment is strengthening as energy markets grow more volatile. In this sense, the shock may accelerate trends already underway: more renewables, more autoconsumption, and a stronger focus on energy independence.
Consumers, however, still feel the drama most directly at the fuel pump. As Víctor Nebreda from Aevecar explains, petrol stations buy products indexed to international benchmarks like Platts; when crude and refined product prices jump, they have to pass on the cost almost immediately because they hold very little storage. That is why drivers see prices rise so quickly—long before they hear about tanker routes or futures markets. No expert pretends to know how high fuel prices will go, because that depends on decisions taken in Washington, Tehran or Jerusalem, but there is broad agreement on one point: Europe is likely to live with high, volatile energy prices for some time.
In this context, the message from experts is paradoxical but clear. Yes, the Iran-related shock is serious, and yes, it will hurt consumers and industries. But thanks to the painful lessons of 2022, the EU’s energy system is less exposed and more adaptable than before, turning this crisis into a test of resilience rather than an existential threat.
